This work is part of the Department of Energy’s Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). In this study, the values of parameters within the Mellor–Yamada–Nakahishi–Niino (MYNN) boundary layer scheme and the MM5 surface layer scheme of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are perturbed in a systematic way to evaluate parametric sensitivity for two types of specific ramp-causing phenomena: marine pushes and stable mix-out events. Previous research finds that a small number of parameters in the surface layer and boundary layer schemes are responsible for the majority of the forecast uncertainty. In a novel way, it explores how these sensitivities vary across 1) ensemble members with different initial conditions, 2) different times during the events, 3) different types of ramp-causing events, and 4) different horizontal grid spacing. This work investigates the sensitivity of wind speed forecasts during wind ramp events to parameters within a numerical weather prediction model boundary layer physics scheme.
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